BlackBerry Shipped Lower than Projected BB 10 Smartphone – Projecting Few More Quarter of Transition Pain

BlackBerry in its earning release highlighted that total 6.8 Million smartphone were shipped during Q1, FY13 as against analyst projection of 7 Million. BlackBerry shipped 2.7 million BB 10 smartphones and form lion share of Blackberry total smartphone shipment. Analyst projected 3.5 Mn BB10 shipments for Q1, FY13. The lower than expected pick up BB10 shipment impacted overall revenue and total smartphone shipment. It said it ended the quarter with about 72 million subscribers — down by 4 million from the prior quarter overshooting analyst projections. The continuous fall in subscriber number is giving competitor to grab high ARPU Enterprise Prosumer’s. Blackberry in its earning release, projecting net loss during Q2, FY13 citing continuous investment in supply chain, advertisement and new product rollouts to calm down increasing growing impatient investors. Today BlackBerry Stock is getting hammered with more than 20% cut and very bad result would be grabbed by competitors to snatch their value service customer base.

Blackberry Again Fall Short on Unit Shipments and Revenue during Q1,FY13

BlackBerry Inc. released shocking result with net loss for its fiscal first quarter, as smart phone deliveries came in below Wall Street’s predictions, though the organization linked part of the revenue and net loss miss to “Venezuela Forex limitations.”

Total income was $3.1 billion dollars, up from $2.8 billion dollars in the same period last year. Adjusted net reduction came in at $67 thousand, or 13 cents per share. Analyst expectation was 7 cents per share profit, $3.4 Bn Revenue and average projection of 3.3 million BB10 smartphone shipments.

BlackBerry blamed Forex limitations which impacted modified results negatively by about 10 cents per share, and negatively impacted service revenue by $72 million.

Rise in Android Malicious Applications – Impact and Opportunity

According to Juniper Mobile, 92% of all malware applications are designed with Android environment and 500 plus 3d party Android Application store are used to bypass any uneven pattern by hackers. Juniper Mobile Threat Centre analysed more than 1.85 million sampled applications covering all major mobile OS during FY12 and identified 275K plus malicious Applications and 3 out of 5 such applications are originating from either China or Russia. The YoY malicious application growth is more than 155% and 92% of identified malicious application was targeted towards Android Platform. The unmatched growth attached with Android Mobile OS attracted hacker to cash in on ongoing adoption trend. There are multiple mechanism hacker can attract user to download applications and subsequently steal or redirect all activity information of user. Juniper also claimed that 77% of the designed malware turned into viral malware due to non updation of mobile OS version. The report indirect indication is clear. Many Application stores failed to implement stringent security tools, process, content contextual pattern related features to identify unavailable signature based malware. User must be getting an alert by the applications store to update device OS to mitigate any upcoming unwarranted threat. It also indicate lack of integrated mechanism to support remote user management to send across forced update to user by Apps store. All of us talk about BYOD, Remote configuration and confirmation management but in reality many service provider failed to integrate must have components of analytical and security management tools to safeguard their customers. It is not far away when Smartphone would be used by Hackers to launch DDoS attack to bring down communication medium. On the opportunity side, with the growing adoption of Tablet and Smartphone as computing device to execute professional activities, server defined mirror security platform may get quick traction.

Unsolicited Commercial Communications Regulation in India– Trigger for Mobile Based Advertisement

The online advertisement spend by advertisers are reached INR 2260 Cr ending March 2013. The market size is too low. The advertiser’s prefer to opt for telemarketing and promotional SMS to reach out to Mobility user compared to application based mobile advertisement on mobile. The Applications ecosystem in India is not matured enough to offer hidden potential of device centric and application hosted mobile advertisement due to number of reasons such as backend delivery, Contextual capture, mobile e-Commerce mechanism. The lack of technology supported triggered advertisers to choose telemarketing and promotional SMS to offer product awareness drive through the mentioned media. In order to keep the cost low and offer better value proposition, many telemarketing and bulk advertisement providers decided to choose short cuts to capture market share. The move turned out to be risk for consumer privacy, content security. Post multiple regulatory directives, regulators failed to stop pesky telemarketing calls and SMS by telemarketing companies. In order to control unaccounted billions of message routing through illegal mechanism prompted regulators to put the onus on Wireless operators to enhance their network to eradicate or control revenue leakage which is impacting whole ecosystem player. Post few high voltage meetings and directives, it is observed that many companies indulged in Mobile Marketing using Telemarketing and SMS experienced drastic fall in their order flow and business. Any positive impact of unsolicited commercial communication regulation would force advertisers to find another medium to reach out to consumer base. With the growing adoption of Application among Indian medium to high end smartphone users, Mobile marketing business is going to be redirected to Mobile advertisement based marketing. In my earlier post, I mentioned about Mobile based advertisement market size of INR 230 Cr but I can see that $ Bn’s opportunity is waiting for the smart companies to capture.

Mobile and Tablet Based Advertisement Command 10% of Total Online Ad Market in India

The Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and IMRB International report indicate shift in online advertisement segment. The different media components of online advertisement are search, display, mobile, social media, email, video. Indian Online advertisement market by March 2013 reached INR 2260 clocking 29% YoY growth. The growing online advertisement destination is mobile and tablet. The segment ad market spends reached 230Cr clocking 88% YoY growth. It is expected that mobile and tablet based mobile ad space is going to observe major upward spend by advertiser in next few years. Given the Indian economic size and generally FMCG, Telecom, Real Estate, BFSI sectors are considered big advertisers indicate revenue leakage in the space. Stay tuned for my upcoming post which will highlight how mobile advertisement segment can generate more revenue than print and newspaper segment

Amazon Web Eyeing India for Growth

Amazon arm, Amazon Web Services eyeing India market to continue its phenomenal growth. Since inception in 2006, AWS is offering pay as you go, on demand facilities, Storage, delivery platforms to enable customers to reach out to global consumers on the fly. Indian Enterprises and Government sectors are relatively slow in adopting cloud service given the underlying issues such as data porting, inter-operability and regulations. Buoyant with growing business from existing customer base and opportunity to tap new customers in relatively nascent market segment, AWS is eyeing India for additional growth potential.

AWS sees e-commerce on mobile and additional service offering to Enterprises around Big Data. AWS feels that e-Commerce on mobile is going to contribute 50% revenue in next few years. The optimistic projection is due to new network deployment supporting data speed Internet access, higher adoption of smartphones and affordable access charges. The AWS growth attracted competitors like VMware, Rackspace, and Microsoft Azure started offering multiple cloud options compared to AWS Public Cloud based services & infrastructure. AWS also developed partnership with analytical companies to scan through Big Data to help Enterprise target and capture new customers and revenues. I am sure it would be great experience for Amazon to especially enable PSU’s on its cloud.

Nokia Asha Platform Adoption - Critical for Company Growth

Last few years observed major upsets and repositioning of device manufacturer on global level. Nokia decision to move out of Symbian triggered unprecedented fall in Nokia Feature and Mid-range device volume and at the same time lost its number one position Samsung. Samsung captured never to miss opportunity and invested heavily on brand building, device innovation, and mobile device availability across price range to capture market share from Nokia. The fall in Nokia market share, profitability, restructuring, positioning of Lumia Series and slow uptake of Lumia prompted many analyst to write down Nokia survivability chance and resurgence of the same.

Nokia in the last few years tried to develop many mobile OS and subsequently scrapped it. The master of mid-priced phones, Nokia launched Asha series value filled device and consumer received it well. The Chinese device OEM’s came out with low priced Smartphone changed consumers adoption pattern. After three plus years of research and development, Nokia developed Asha Platform which is designed for Low to medium range smartphone.

This week Nokia launched $99 Asha501 smartphone based on Asha Platform in Thailand and Pakistan to target geographies to play volume game. Nokia already taking online booking in India and is expected to launch Asha501 next month. The low priced differentiated feature packed device is expected to gain good traction in emerging countries.

BY launching Asha platform attached Asha 501, Nokia sent clear message to consumers and competitor that Nokia filled the vacuum in their portfolio post Symbian OS decision. It also indicates Nokia strategy to target volume play with Asha platform and Premium consumers with Window Mobile OS based Lumia.

This time around misstep which happened during Lumia device availability due to component shortage may act as major blow. Nokia supply chain efficiency to deliver volume and availability of device in multiple geographies may turn competitive heat towards Competitors.

Microsoft Window Mobile Adoption Challenge – Apps Developer Support, Availability & Downloads

Microsoft made another attempt using Window and Build conference platform to attract developer communities in its fold by offering attractive incentives. Microsoft wants to build on their limited success with WM8.0 and redefined WM8.1 by showcasing differentiated consumer and prosumer connect capabilities. Microsoft CEO Ballmer used conference to highlight application segment attached growth in application download and revenue but at the same time confirmed their position in application market dominated by Android and iOS. According to Telegraph analysis, global applications download per month from Google play crossed 2.5 Bn Whereas its  2Bn from iOS ,Apple supported apps store. On contrary, download from Microsoft apps store only crossed 200 Mn per month. The number clearly indicates Microsoft desperation to mark its presence in application domain and create more stickiness around its product line.

Microsoft Strategic Move – Opening Up Bing Platform for Developers

Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer announced during Window and Build conference that the Bing.com would be termed as intelligent services and is going to be embedded across Microsoft powered devices, services and 3^rd party application to offer seamless information access to consumers. Developer can leverage Bing platform attached technology to develop differentiated user experience feature for their own services and Windows centric services or products or dynamic applications. Microsoft latest announcement to offer developer driven search service interoperable Microsoft Windows, Windows Mobile, Windows Media and Other product line is going to help Microsoft to position its product more effectively. The move is an indirect approach by Microsoft to attract developer on its Bing Platform and reposition itself to fight off with Search Engine Leader “GOOGLE”.At first look, the Microsoft offer may attract millions of developer in their fold

Reality Bite- Is India Ready for Big Data Centric Targeted Product Development!!!

In an environment of differentiated product offer personalized for customer by Telecom service provider using Big Data analytical mechanism. Term Big Data is nothing but huge data pass-through on Telco network. Many Telco’s are analysing, understanding data and subsequently defining and refining customer service, current and upcoming product portfolio to earn revenue and at the same time increase Subscriber retention. Big Data offer insight about subscriber usage and access patterns of downloads, applications, history to enable Telecom Operators make right Go To Market strategy to target in specific rather than generic way.

The big question mark is around Indian Telco and consumer readiness and acceptance respectively. Indian Telecom service providers are struggling to identify pesky call and SMS originator and putting the offenders in accountability domain and it demonstrate lack of inbuilt tools to scan through subscriber generated so called Big Data.

Indian wireless operators are struggling to retain the VAS subscriber base and revenues are falling QoQ, YoY .The reason of higher churn rate, low VAS revenue and low VAS product adoption is due to blind advertisement, non-compliance of mobile VAS (MVAS) and nonexistence of any innovative VAS product launch. At the same time, Indian mobility consumers are price sensitive. Any personalized Product or Service or Application would require higher subscription, pricing which is not feasible in India.

On the other hand, Enterprise Mobility segment offer great opportunity for Telecom service provider but unfortunately Indian MVAS companies consider or term telemarketing and based product promotion as Enterprise Mobility. The adoption of Enterprise mobility centric product development and positioning based on Big Data may create buzz in the market place but Telecom service providers financial health as well vision don’t fall in long term investment on products

Few Indian Telecom service providers hired International analytical firms to analyse huge data flowing through their network but their current product portfolio and struggle to retain their market share. In my point of view, adoption and offering of Big Data centric product by few Enterprise don’t represent opportunity around it.

Oracle and Microsoft Partnered to Fend off Competition & Increase Market Share

In its continued effort to increase Cloud based subscription service, Oracle announced strategic partnership with Microsoft to integrate its database and web tools on Microsoft Window Azure cloud platform. Microsoft will offer Oracle product line to its corporate customer and intron creating opportunity for Oracle to move faster on its vision of subscription based product offerings. Oracle partnership is going to help Microsoft compete effectively offering compatible product line. The offering will help customers to use Microsoft Cloud Azure Platform for their software development and use Oracle database. Extensive partnership in SaaS, PaaS, and IaaS domain will help Microsoft to compete aggressively with the likes of Amazon, VMware, and Google in one or another area. Both the titan is looking to increase their $1 Bn revenue into multibillion $ revenue machine as they hold or serve mostly all companies in one or another way. It’s good news for investor and customer base

Oracle Entered Into Strategic Collaboration with Salesforce.com - Rebalancing Move

Fierce rivals agreed to be collaborator to face off growing cloud based competitors offering managed services offering in their core business area. Oracle and Salesforce.com announced nine years of strategic partnership covering Applications. Platform and Infrastructure segment of cloud computing ecosystem. Collaboration cover Salesforce.com standardize on the Oracle product line such Linux OS, Exadata, Database, and Java Middleware Platform whereas Oracle is going to Fusion HCM and Financial Cloud with Salesforce.com.Salesforce.com Application and Platform will be powered by Oracle core technologies. Oracle's Fusion HCM and Financial cloud applications will be implemented by Salesforce.com throughout the company. The strategic collaboration is going to create new opportunities for Oracle to position its wide range of product line to Salesforce.com existing customer current and future solutioning requirement as a managed cloud service model. The move is going to rejig competition landscape as Oracle can’t be termed as competitors as a company focussing on lock-in rather than would be viewed by potential customer as one stop solution. The collaboration shows how customers’ expectation can directly or indirectly force fierce competitors into collaborators

Bharti Airtel May be Slapped with Another Penalty of 650Cr and Impact

In its ongoing hate and love with Indian regulators, Bharti Airtel may be slapped with another fine of 650Cr for its violation of subscriber local dialling (SLD) based on PTI reports. Telecom ministry blamed Bharti Airtel that Bharti unabatedly offered national and international dialling service as local call even though DoT warned Bharti Airtel in 2003 but Bharti Airtel continued the service till 2005 inflicting heavy loses to BSNL and government exchequer. I am surprised to see the potential upcoming fine. Recently, DoT slapped 350 Cr fine on Bharti Airtel for 3G roaming violation. Two fine is more or less equal to last two quarter profitability. In ongoing situation of legal and regulatory bottleneck, I don’t see FDI would flow back in Indian Telecom Sector

Indian Telecom PSU’s BSNL & MTNL are Focusing on Enterprise Business to Grow

Encouraged with greater acceptance of Enterprise solutions by Customer and clocking 4000 Cr revenue, BSNL is eyeing double digit revenue growth in FY13. BSNL entered into ten year contract with Dimension Data to invest 200Cr to develop BSNL cloud service based on Dimension Data Managed Cloud. The BSNL cloud service to customers will be served through its Internet datacentre which is located in major cities in and around Metro cities. In order to fill connectivity gap to customers to tap new customer base, BSNL is using MTNL connectivity offering to offer managed cloud solution. BSNL is optimistic as client base, capacity utilization is going up. I will be eagerly observing the growth transformation of Government Owned BSNL and its cascading positive impact on MTNL

Cisco Gaining Traction in Server Market

In 2009, Cisco launched their server range with fanfare and advocated their managed service play to their customers. It was considered by many of Cisco partner as Cisco effort to encroach into their customer base and initiated realignment of reseller approach by Cisco partners. It also initiated Hewlett Packard to acquire 3Com to strengthen their networking offering to mitigate any potential loss of business to Cisco. Broadcom, Juniper was the major beneficiary as IBM and others pushed their routing product. Analyst feared that Cisco entry into Server market is going to have more than $ 1 Bn potential revenue lost as major server player’ used to sell Cisco routing product. Unperturbed by partner turned into foe, Cisco slowly started market moves with performance oriented server certified to work across cross vendor network equipment. In lasted quarterly server market share report by Gartner, Cisco market share reached to 2.3% with more than 50k server movement during Q1, FY13.Cisco increased its global server shipment share from Q1, FY12 level of 1.7%. For the last few quarter, cisco is beating street revenue and earnings projections. According to IDC, Cisco generated $450 Mn Server revenue during Q1, FY13. I believe that in next one year Cisco may upset major server player’s to increase its market, shipment and revenue share of server market.

MTS India Launched Always Talk for Prepaid Subscribers – Attempt to Retain & Increase Subscribers

MTS India offers wireless services in Nine Circles out of 21 Circle as per the wireless service circle. Post license cancellation and acquisition of new one, MTS launched “Always Talk” offering to its prepaid subscriber base. The 2G saga, abrupt withdrawal of mobility service post Supreme Court order forced millions of subscribers to scramble to get new connection from competitors. During process, MTS suffered major brand value. The offer from MTS includes 1000 minutes of free local calls in competitor network. The Always Talk attached free talking time offers to prepaid subscribers, MTS attempting to extend coverage to non-licensed geographies. The intention is place itself as a player who can offer full connectivity across geographies and differentiate it from regional players. I am not sure that the attempt is going to increase their subscriber base or profitability but will definitely help Incumbent players to make good revenue out of it. Indian Telecom sectors are quick to follow on Tariff side and expecting other regional players to match MTS offering to retain their customer base.

Indian Mobile Marketing Business experiencing fall in business post stringent regulation

The regulatory effort to protect Indian wireless and wired subscriber privacy as well as to enforce regulation started to show positive impact after 5 years of effort. In recent months, Indian regulators warned few wireless operators to twist their networks identify, block and initiate action against telemarketing flaunting regulatory compliance forced Mobile marketing tools as well as service provider to remodel their service offering. The “Telemarketing and SMS based promotional activities are termed as Wireless Enterprise Mobility” by few service providers raised their concerns regarding fall in business post enforcement of Do not Disturb, Increased termination charges and termed regulatory moves as showstopper act. I am surprised to observe that none talked about consumer pain and overall benefit of regulation on wireless ecosystem. I also carry reservation in terming Telemarketing calls and SMS based promotional calls as wireless marketing because all kind of wireless service must be supported with subscriber consent. The current solution offerings neglect consumer side.

Oracle Cloud Strategy – More Partnership

Oracle is planning to push forward heavily in the Cloud SaaS segment to strengthen its position. Encouraged with good response of its Cloud SaaS and growing adoption of its Cloud Service Subscription, Oracle is working on seamless licensing mechanism of its and partner product portfolio. During Q4, FY13 result conference call, Oracle CEO outlined company plan to expand cloud offering. Oracle may use Partner Network Kick-off platform to announce series of partnership with cloud centric OEM’s and Service Providers. The partnership may be announced with Microsoft, NetSuite and others. Oracle focus and partnership is going to reshape cloud market in coming quarters.

Investment in Gold – Negative Return Expected for Indian Investor

The Indian investors with mind-set of investment in gold for good return in short to long terms are going to get crude shockwaves. The current domestic gold price is maintaining 26500 to 28000 INR range due to continuous fall in Indian Currencies against US $. The fall in Indian Currency negated the negative impact of major fall in International Gold price level. When International Gold price was around $1450 then also Indian domestic gold price was hovering around 28000 INR. The fall of Indian currency from 53 to 60 reflects 12% drop whereas International Gold price fell 20%. Post US FOMC meeting and comment from US fed regarding QE tapering, the cascading impact of it is going to settle down in next few trading session but at the same time, going to positively impact investors’ confidence about potential growth moment, return of higher interest rate regime, under controlled inflation number. Positive monsoon prediction, Expected government action to raise FDI cap in multiple sectors, Policy clarity on Fuel Supply to power companies, Gas pricing and etc may act as catalyst for Indian Currency rebounding back to 54 to 55 levels. The continuous fall of International Gold Price which is expected to fall further, potential Indian Currency rebound will negatively impact Indian Domestic Gold Price. I believe that, one should be surprised if Indian domestic gold price falls to 22000 INR in next 6 month. Any investor buying gold purely on investment purpose should be ready for negative return. In my upcoming post, I will give reason why equity investment is better than Gold given the high inflation and other Economic KPI’s

Bharti Airtel Slashing 4G Tariffs – May Not Trigger Higher Subscription

In an attempt to increase 4G subscriber base, Bharti Airtel slashing its 4G tariff plan( ET) to 3G tariff level. New scheme include free data usage of 2GB, 3GB and 4GB under monthly subscription plan of INR 450,650 and 750 targeted for entry level subscriber. New tariff will not cover auto subscription of Bharti Airtel 4G entertainment service and will be offered to subscriber subscribed under higher data plan starting from 999 and more. The move from Bharti Airtel is viewed as an attempt to kick-start mass adoption of 4G adoption as well as to set minimum tariff threshold for any new entrants such as Reliance Jio. Slashing tariff also indicate slow adoption of subscriber for high speed network and their willingness to pay higher tariff. Even after huge marketing push and post 5 years into offering, most of the broadband companies are struggling to increase subscriber number. The current broadband and mobile services subscriber base of 15.2 Mn and 868 Mn clearly indicate that Indian subscribers are voice centric and India failed to increase adoption of Broadband. It translates to one point; It would be too optimistic as assumption that wireless broadband is going to attract many more subscribers than current broadband subscribers. Even after having all pre-requisite Networks, Resources, Tool, Sales through Team, Brand and first mover; if Bharti is facing issues in increasing their 4G subscriber base; it would be interesting to see how Reliance Jio is going to capture multi million subscribers and claim of Industry dynamic change

HTC Trying to Sail Through Trouble Times

According to HTC annual report, HTC initiated pay cuts post dismal financial performance is still haunting them. HTC is facing stiff competition from rival in its own region. Recent quarters indicated their prolonged weakness to position their product portfolio in a differentiated manner. HTC current situation is self-inflicted post delays in product launch

The annual shareholding meeting observed frustrated shareholders asking for clear strategy from Company rather than suggestion from CEO to be patient. Recently, HTC One successfully selling as hot smartphone in US and Company intends to increase Marketing fund to highlight its differentiated value proposition to mitigate growing competition from Samsung, Nokia and Chinese smartphone player. One can only hope that HTC focussed effort to turn itself into growing company.

Oracle Announced Investor Sweetener- Higher Quarterly Dividend & Increased Share Repurchase Program Fund.

Oracle Corporation released their Q4, FY13 result post US market close and it disappointed on revenue side. Revenue came at $ 11 Bn vs. analyst projection of $11.12Bn. The revenue growth experienced no growth mode whereas net profit increased from $3.5Bn to $3.8 Bn demonstrating tighter cost control implemented across business units. The interesting point of result revolved around Yearly free cash flow generation of $14.2 Bn (GAAP Basis) and allocation of additional $12 Bn in on-going share repurchase program which is going to be executed in number of quarters. Oracle also announced 100% increase in quarterly dividend to 0.12 US cents QoQ. The investor must read in between lines of result to reap maximum return out of it. The Revenue miss is because of hardware business unit even though Oracle in its press release stressed on Hardware unit impressive QoQ growth whereas hardware unit YoY growth is negative. The rest of the business unit clearly demonstrates their seamless strategy implementation. The additional fund allocation to existing share repurchase program offer insight about their confidence in on-going economic environment for next many quarter. None of the IT companies are going to allocate multibillion dollar in additional share repurchase if they smell any downturn on economy and prospects of IT sector.

Oracle Corporation Crossed $1 Bn Cloud SaaS Revenue in FY 2013

The growing adoption of Cloud in the last five year and maturity in the segment prompted Oracle to redesign its strategy to mitigate any indirect hole between customer expectation and Oracle Software Licensing offering. Oracle during its Q4 FY13 release claimed that its Cloud SaaS which include HCM, ERP and ERP experienced healthy 50% growth and won 500 plus customers in Q4. Oracle also claimed that its Cloud SaaS segment crossed $1Bn yearly revenue run rate and positioned second. In FY2013, Cloud SaaS contributed only 10 % of total new software license and Cloud Subscription service. With growing acceptance of its Cloud SaaS subscription and vision to topple ranked one competitor, we should not be surprised with another round of acquisition by Oracle to strengthen its 2^nd position while targeting for leadership position.

Reliance Capital Initiate Steps to Help Curbing Gold Imports in India

Reliance Capital demonstrates proactively approach to suspend Gold related Fund, Loan and Financing to curb Gold Import. According to CNBC TV18 exclusive report, Reliance capital suspended subscription to Reliance Capital Gold Saving Fund. The current AUM of Reliance Capital Gold Saving Fund is INR 2271. Company also decided to suspend physical gold sales to investor. In the midst of growing concern of Indian Current account deficit and Balance of Payment; Reliance Capital initiative must be applauded and should be followed by other companies importing gold unabatedly. In May Import and Export Data, Gold import contributes around 17% of total import. The Gold Import in May valued at $8.3Bn contributing 40% in growing Trade deficit. I believe that under Corporate Social Responsibility, Gold Importing Companies may consider taking Reliance Capital path not only to help country but to extend help to Indian Citizen experiencing indirect impact of gold import.

Cisco Sees Revenue Opportunities in 'Internet of Everything'

Cisco detailed out opportunities around "Internet of Everything" and  validating how it can create additional revenue potential over upcoming decade covering both business and consumer ecosystem. The networking giant noted there's the impending for corporations to produce as much as $14.4 trillion in revenue in between 2013 to 2022. Cisco highlighted how the transition of technology innovation is going to create connected device environment with grid. Assessment also highlighted that ecosystem players may generate $631 billion profits this year. That translates to additional $544 billion in value which can be grabbed during remaining period of FY 2013. Cisco used 21 different use case to calculate total revenue potential of $14.4 Trillion. The components included are Innovation, SCM, asset utilization, and Customer experience and employee productivity

Cisco $ 180 million acquisition of Data Virtualization Software Company Composite Software

Cisco strengthened its Data Virtualization offering by acquiring Composite Software in $180 million deal. The move came post SolveDirect acquisition and goal is to expand and offer network equipment supplier flexibility to offer data analytical tool. The combination of both the acquisition is going to help multi geographical based customer network do the talking with their partner to seamlessly share vital information and dynamically execute the information exchange

Alcatel Lucent SA another Turnaround Plan and Focus Area

Alcatel Lucent SA CEO Michel Combes outlined new turnaround plan to realign strategic direction of company and be profitable by 2015. Alcatel Lucent are planning to generate $1.3 Bn in assets sales, additional cost control to fund new innovation in IP networking centric product, platform and servicing side. ALU lost major competitive ground to Ciena and Cisco post multiple delays in product launch, longer than expected realignment time and cost, unorganized spread out operation. New turnaround plan include R&D in Routing, optical and Software Products as well as platform to redefine their positioning in next generation networks. ALU CEO expect that the turnaround plan is going to be completed by 2015 and expect profitable ALU. ALU failed to make any positive cash flow financial year since 2006. I strongly believe that upcoming focus and strong skilled resources is going to impact Industry positively.

Communication Traffic Monitoring – New Mechanism to Enhance National Security

In recent weeks, most of the major Internet companies are in limelight for sharing access to US government regulators to increase vigilance across user segment. The news attracted concerns from user at one end whereas denial from mentioned Companies. The move was called “attack on privacy”. In India also, Regulators are thinking of taking help of ISP’s (Internet Service Providers) to tap in traffic to increase vigilance across communication link. In my point of view, the monitoring management of communication link attached with different delivery network is good initiation from government regulators. We hear hacking, information breach, Loss of data and unlawful communication flowing here and there. In 2011-12, Blackberry was forced to setup their servers in India and also allowed lawful intercept facilities to government agencies. In an environment, where unlawful entities are getting more tech savvy and using Internet and Mobile communication oriented closed loop communications to be in touch with each other. The new proposed mechanism would help government to keep close eye on unlawful entity and act before it’s too late. Law abiding user should not get feel threatened by government initiative where the contents are reviewed for national security and security of one’s information. It is going to help enforcement agencies to get early warnings and initiate action to mitigation potential threats across multiple verticals of crimes.

Falling Indian Currency – New Opportunities for Mid-Size Technology Exporters

The continuous high level of Trade Deficit, Increasing commodities imports, slowing economy impacted Indian Currency dearly. Indian Currency INR fell more than 7% in last one quarter and expected to fall for another few quarter. On one side, Industry as a whole is worried about steep fall of Indian Currency whereas it is considered to be another positive for IT companies to launch another attempt to snatch IT contracts across global foot print. In my point of view, all IT companies with little to full focus on technology export is going to be benefited. The mid-sized IT companies are going to be benefited the most as they restructured their cost model to minimum to fight with on-going economic downturn. Companies like Hexaware, Polaris, Rolta, Geometric, MindTree, MPhasis, Zensar and many others are going to see improvement on their margin by 1 to 2%. It would also help them to bid aggressively for new projects from their existing or new clients. It would not be wrong to expect few good financial quarters and good number of big ticket contracts

Karbonn Mobile in India Outpaced Sony and Nokia to Capture Third Spot during Q1, FY 2013 Smartphone Shipment

Karbonn Mobile made major upset in Smartphone shipment during Q1, FY2013. The clear consumer understanding and continuous refreshment of Smartphone portfolio helped Karbonn to increase its smartphone shipment and marked its presence by capturing 5^th position during Q4, 2012. New Smartphone shipment tracker of IDC, Q1 FY2013 puts Karbonn on third spot validates the dynamic shift of consumer preferences of opting for price plus performance centric smartphone in Sub $300 range. It is interesting to observe the dynamic flavour of Consumer Preference and Adoption of Domestic Smartphone players devices compared to International Brand. By the end of 2011, the domestic device manufacturers were struggling to halt the onslaught of Samsung aggressive push in Sub Premium Class consumer base but effective and efficient repositioning of product portfolio helped Karbonn to turn the tide other way around. It is expected that the upcoming release of Smartphone supported with Quad Core Processors may help Karbonn to snatch market share from market leaders and further cement its positioning in Smartphone Segment.

Analyst Estimation (RBC Capital) - Blackberry to Ship 14 Million Units in 2013

With growing channel distribution across different geographies, analysts are estimating higher unit ship for Fiscal first quarter as well as for financial year 2013.

RBC capital analyst report predicted that Blackberry Q1, 2013 shipment to touch around 3.5 Million units as against previous projection of 2.75Mn units. The Q2 may experience 15% sequential growth in unit shipment to 4 Mn. The analyst firm also believe that Blackberry is going to hit 14 million unit shipments as against previous projection of 11 million units in financial year 2013. In the last few days, Blackberry attracted both negative and positive assessment from analyst firm and it would be interesting to see recovery path of Blackberry.

India Smartphone segment achieved 14% QoQ Growth

Based on IDC report, India Smartphone shipment reached 6.1 million units at the end of Q1, FY2013 achieving growth of 14% QoQ. The increase in shipment volume got major boost with Samsung offer, Micromax successful Canvas Series of Smartphone and Karbonn $200 smartphone positioning. Based on the Smartphone player’s strategy to launch multiple device in Sub $200 range is going to propel higher adoption by new customer and in replacement cycle mode. I would not be surprised if the growth and volume if going to be captured by domestic Smartphone player. It is also expected that based on the trend of Q1,FY13 smartphone shipment, the total FY 13 smartphone shipment is going to overshoot previous estimate of 27.8 million unit shipment by IDC analysts.

New Disruptive Tactical Move to Spread Confusion in Buyers Mind - Huawei Open to Buy Nokia

On Tuesday, Post The Financial Times article, quoting Richard Yu, Head Consumer Business, Huawei shown interest in merging with Nokia with a Precondition. The interesting Pre-condition was for Nokia to drop Window Mobile Platform and move to Android phone. In recent quarters, Nokia is positioning itself across ecosystem vertical through horizontal and vertical ecosystem support and offering good value proposition to consumers and prosumer's. Huawei, the third largest Smartphone Player is of course the heat of Nokia new and upgraded Lumia series device across geographies including China. The subsequent clarification from Huawei denying any intention to honour Richard Yu, clearly justify tactical move of disruption methodology to create confusion and snatch market share. In my point of view, its shows organization print media control mechanism.

Adobe added 221000 paid subscribers to Creative Cloud Service

Acrobat software came out with strong result beating market expectation. Company Creative Cloud service witnessed strong growth with 221000 new subscription in second quarter taking total subscription to 700000.

Adobe launched their web-based subscription service last year for their flagship software package to other than Licensing model. The huge growth in subscription service received positively by investors and stock is more than 5% in pre- market. Revenue matched analyst expectation of $1.01 compared to $1.12 Bn in YoY quarter.

Polaris to deploy Mutual Fund Distribution Platform to ease out retail investor pain

Polaris Financial Technology won an order to implement centralized mutual fund utility platform. The Association of Mutual Funds in India vision is to deploy a centralized mutual fund distribution platform to enable investor access and transact all mutual fund . Post deployment in phase of 9 month, platform would enable greater level of retail penetration through differentiated customer experience, operation and service efficiency.

Polaris carry extensive experience in Online Transaction processing platform and successfully implemented many for Global and Domestic exchanges. The proposed platform deployment will have single sign off in order to enable investor to execute transaction across Mutual Fund Industry supporting multiple payment mechanism.

Indian User Opinion about Pesky Calls and SMS – Lack of Awareness and Social Responsibility Adherence

Recent weeks print media is full of articles around pesky calls and SMS monster which is taking centre stage in most not all communications from regulators. Regulators are proposing stringent fines across ecosystem players involved in supporting pesky calls and SMS. Post multiple blog article posted by me on different social sites to professional sites to increase awareness about negative impact of pesky call and SMS engineering, I realised that Indian subscribers are least bothered about happening around them. I thought of another approach to figure out the unsuccessful enforcement of regulation and esteemed Indian subscribers opinion about the same. Post talking with more than 200 very educated, professionally successful, well-known names in their respective sectors; I reached to the following conclusion

• Not aware of processes to take on pesky caller and SMS originator
• No one want to get into legal process
• Even NDNC subscriber told that nothing is going to improve so it’s useless to talk about it
• No one ever launched any complaint but proudly admitted that they are getting multiple calls and SMS on daily basis
• Other few opinion were very crude and prefer not to share the same

If Industry especially Telco’s are losing Billions of $ then Telco must be part and parcel of awareness program. At the same time, there must be participation by corporate world to increase awareness among their employee about the Pro’s and Con’s of pesky calls and SMS on personal and professional information management. Government may consider stringent information technology centric regulation and announce heavy penalty on companies giving business to mass product marketing companies without adhering to government regulation.

Bharti Airtel Move into Data Centre Segment – Offer New Opportunities and Challenges for Many

Bharti move to hive off its captive datacentre into standalone entity is going to change competitive landscape for better. Bharti excelled in managing and expanding its captive datacentres for OnNet service offering to Enterprises. The dynamic changes in service offering and adoption of new technologies might be one of the reasons for Bharti to create more value for itself and its customer. The move by Bharti in adopting cloud computing and mechanism to refine its product portfolio can be considered as added benefits for Bharti. The standalone Datacentres entity might choose to focus in targeting Enterprises through Colocation supported Cloud Mechanism and integrated with Bharti Airtel Triple play delivery network is going to change the Industry service offerings and delivery. The other competitive datacentre offerings which are offering services like hosting, Connectivity and SaaS platform would be challenged by Bharti. Bharti effective and efficient expertise of rolling out services or product through bundle of quick process integration and support of all required component and sub-component would be tough to be matched by competitors. The intention of separating Datacentre into standalone entity clearly indicates Bharti intentions to convert its existing Enterprise Customer base with more E2E solution offering. The move is going to be positive for ICT hardware and software providers to generate more revenue through single window

MVAS subscription record management – New Threat for Indian MVAS Suppliers and Mobile Operators

As per the directive from government regulators, all MVAS (Mobile Value Added Service) provider both in OnNet and OffNet environment of Mobile Operator must maintain subscription record of all offered MVAS product or application or services. The new directive is going to be in force by 10^th of July 2013. In new directives, there must be a mechanism for double verification of any new subscription or renewal of MVAS on pull or push basis from OffNet an OnNet environment which is directly or indirectly connected with Mobile Operator Network. On one hand, new directive is going to be relief for MVAS users whereas it is going to bring in multiple technical, operational and financial implications. In the past one years, on accessing financial results of both Mobile Operators and MVAS ecosystem players, it is evident that MVAS regulation impacted their revenue stream negatively and new directive is going to make ecosystem players business model more negatively than positively. As claimed by TRAI that there is an easy exit mechanism in place to surrender MVAS product or services but I humbly think the other way. The exit mechanism onus should not be user initiated but should be focussed on the first step of subscription request. The new directive is going to increase the churn rate of MVAS users further and financial impact is going to be much higher than expected.

India National Roaming Tariff Ceiling Set by TRAI – Effective from 1st July 2013

The Telecom regulators came out with new mobile services tariff ceiling for National roaming and also mandated STVs and Special Vouchers offering by service providers.
On-going Tariff Rates for National Roaming

• Outgoing Local Calls – 1.40 INR/Min
• Outgoing STD Calls – 2.40 INR/Min
• Incoming Calls – 1.75 INR/Min
• Outgoing SMS – Under Forbearance
• Incoming SMS - Free

New Tariff is going to be effective from 1^st July 2013

• Outgoing Local Calls – 1 INR/Min
• Outgoing STD Calls – 1.5 INR/Min
• Incoming Calls - 0.75 INR/Min
• Outgoing Local SMS – 1.0 INR
• Outgoing STD SMS – 1.5 INR
• Incoming SMS- Free

Next post will be focussed on its impact.

Microsoft, Juniper and Sonus Network Direct and Indirect Collaboration redefining UCC – Unified Communications and Collaboration paradigm

By the end of June, Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to launch updated version of Lync with inbuilt Skype. Microsoft Lync is unified communications platform targeting enterprises customer base. The Skype integration will help Microsoft to convert Lync in a consolidated IP communication system that would offer PBX replacement.

Microsoft Lync platform without voice received good response and adoption from Enterprises. The upcoming version with Lync integration is going to make major difference. Many Enterprises are looking for consolidated Unified communication and Collaboration platform and Microsoft is hoping to increase Lync existing and new Enterprise customer base.

In a managed service environment, Microsoft collaborated with number of partners to fulfil enterprise customer hardware and software requirement through single window to enable Enterprise with complete and unified communications management system. The partner product line include Session border controllers(SBC), Media Gateways, Networking Gear and IP phones to offer management platform for CAC, Voice QoS, End-to-End Call setup and retention.

The one of the major beneficiary would be Sonus network. The pure Service Provider networking gear OEM entered into Enterprise segment through acquisition of Network Equipment Technologies (NET). Sonus innovative Session Border Controller designed for Service Provider and Enterprise through Smart policy and call management system attracted many enterprises looking for voice add-ons and differentiated media. Sonus recent collaboration with Juniper in the field of Software Defined Network may enable Sonus Lync Business Unit to serve Microsoft Lync Platform adopter with Skype add-ons.

Post Acme Packet acquisition by Oracle, the Session border controller segment is changing fast and Sonus acquisition of NET attracted many platform players in consolidated voice, data and media offering to forge collaboration with Sonus to tap increasing growing Unified Communications and Collaboration segment. Juniper partnership with Sonus and Sonus partnership with Microsoft inturn created end to end solution provider for Enterprise and can seamlessly refine, redefine existing or new service provider network. Its win wins collaboration for all entity and offer great opportunity to increase revenue share in a very competitive segment of UCC.

New Procurement and Security Policy on the way for Government Funded Projects in India

Indian regulators are drafting new procurement and security policy for all government ICT project. Industry analysts are seeing as continuation of “Networking gear supplier manufacturing requirement in India”. In the last few years, India is experience continuous cyber-attack on both Public and Private sector. Recently, major government ministries network was compromised by hacker. The intention of regulators across ministers is to increase common minimum regulatory compliance adherence. The new security framework for OEM’s would be focussed on must have security capabilities integrated with OEM’s to be eligible to bid for any government funded project. It would be add-on to earlier malware free product certification from regulators for both software and hardware rollout in India. In my point of view, the proposed regulation is going to help government to enhance security across government funded project to protect information and national security.

Samsung Seamless Shift from OS dependent to OS Agnostic Smartphone Player – Differentiating Proposition

In Feb 2013, Samsung announced to move out of home grown BADA smartphone OS and collaborated with Intel to develop Linux based Tizen OS. The move was quite surprising as BADA was gaining in smartphone OS segment. Samsung redirected most of the BADA resources to support Tizen OS and demonstrated the glimpse of Tizen OS. The move clearly indicated that Samsung strategic move to focus on growth of Android OS and not to pose any threat to Android through BADA. Any tactical move to increase BADA OS penetration was accessed as shifting slight focus from Android to BADA. The moving out of home grown BADA OS also perceived positively by Android developers and showed Samsung commitment towards Android. Interestingly, Samsung also positioned its WM8.0 OS supported devices and marked its presence in the Windows Mobile OS segment. Even though, Samsung is releasing less number of WM 8.0 devices compared to Android but showed its support for another OS. Now they collaborated with Intel for Tizen and also getting support from few large device manufacturers. Tizen OS is fully compatibles with HTML 5 and also helping BADA ecosystem players to port their applications to system as per the Tizen specifications. Samsung tactical strategy is to be in the central of not all but most of the mobile operating system ecosystem to get clear picture of happening in other mobile operating system segment. By supporting mobile operating system they are also creating opportunities for their chipset and storage business segment. It enables them to identify the gap and way around of the gap to be truly innovative device manufacturer. Samsung learnt from Nokia about the impact of owning mobile operating system rather than supporting it to win over Industry support. Nokia closed ownership environment and dominance on any proposed changes in Symbian offered opportunity platter to Google to garner support from industry Mobile ecosystem players. By venturing into Android, WM8.0 and Tizen; Samsung also communicated to mobile operating system segment that they are least dependent on any of the mobile operating system and capable of shifting gears from one to another mobile operating system based on the change in consumer and prosumer usage pattern.

Google Struggling to Settle Anti-Competition Case Filed with EU Regulators

The EU Anticompetitive regulators move to quiz mobile operators and device manufacturers to validate Microsoft and Nokia claim about Google attempt to supress rival Internet search technology. Three years old complaint by Microsoft and Nokia accused Google for offering lucrative deal to Industry ecosystem players to use Android and in-turned blocked competitor mobile telephony and used it dominant position in Mobile OS to divert traffic to Google search. EU regulators released list of queries for involved parties to review the viability of complaint in order to take next step. Google already offered options of labelling search results with its own product and also enabling links to competing sites. It would be interesting to see, how investigation shapes up as it will be long term impact on mobile operating system ecosystem and Internet Industry dynamics.

Microsoft Collaboration with Best Buy & Canadian Future Shop – Nokia Chance to Increase Market Share & Brand Awareness

In an attempt to break in tiered sell through processes in US and Canadian Mobile Device Market; Microsoft collaborated with struggling Best Buy to open Microsoft powered Windows store. Initially, Microsoft is going to open Windows Store in 600 outlets of Best Buy covering around 50% of the Best Buy outlets. Microsoft also entered in similar agreement Canadian Electronic chain Future shop to open 100 Windows stores. Currently, Apple and Samsung enjoy strong relationship with electronic retailers and generally get 2000 to 2500 square feet of dedicated product line centric space which in turns helped them with higher product adoption by consumers and prosumer’s. The collaboration is going to help Microsoft to initiate user awareness programme about Microsoft product line other than non-mobility product line. In my point of view, Microsoft would be focussing on highlighting connected device support through Microsoft different product layer.

In the past one year, Microsoft also turned buoyant regarding their successful global Window Mobile Operating System WM8.0 adoption through Nokia Lumia product line. In Q42012, Nokia helped Microsoft Windows Mobile OS to replace Blackberry and captured third mot adopted Smartphone OS in US.

Nokia Launched their product line in collaboration with US wireless service providers and due to near zero level presence of Nokia in the past; the sell through team of wireless service providers finding it difficult to convince potential buyers to buy Windows Powered Nokia device. The wireless store attached sales team finds it easy to push Android device given its awareness with consumer base.

The collaboration can be considered as excellent opportunity platter for Nokia to extend the brand awareness in their traditionally weak geography. It would enable Nokia to sell WM8.0 powered multiple Lumia device.

Microsoft vision is to also transform Microsoft DNA perception from Operating System Company to Connected Device end to end solution provider. The space is going to be useful for Microsoft to demonstrate live as well as virtual multi player X-Box, Surface and other device centric product line.

The collaboration and shelf space would also be useful for both Microsoft and Nokia to develop BYOD vs. Nokia advantage given end to end office connectivity through Windows product line. The proposed store agreement is definitely going to be huge challenge for Blackberry to regain 3^rd spot back from Nokia in US market

With multimillion foot fall every year, even if Nokia manage to convert less than half a percent into potential Nokia product user would change US smartphone OS adoption game. Any change in product awareness and adoption is going to have direct impact on ecosystem players around it. In my point of view, the upcoming opportunity and its success may make or break Nokia Long term investors and ecosystem around it.

India home of 12.66% global mobile subscribers and command 20.35% of global non-smartphone market share

According to TRAI report, India March 2013 mobile subscriber base settled at 867 Million. The concluded financial year brought many forecast to dust. One of them was probable mobile subscriber base would cross 1 Billion. On a contrary, India observed one of the worst phase in Indian Telecom history and credit goes to many. Interestingly, India now currently own 12.66% of global mobile subscriber base but command 20.35% of global non smartphone category market share. I was reading multiple articles on smartphone and its growing presence in one’s life. India offer great opportunity to tap in device refreshment cycle and to upgrade non-smartphone users into smartphone users through cost effective $75 to $150 range. Domestic Indian smartphone OEM’s are remodelling their channel management in order to tap the untapped market.

Sony and LG helped Android Mobile OS to capture 92.8% market share in Spain

Spain is one of hardest hit by financial meltdown, high unemployment running in high double digits. To handle financial crisis, government launched stringent austerity program to control fiscal deficit, win over International investors for their government bonds and Potential bailout package from EU. The economic environment change impacted mobile subscriber usage pattern. On analysing Comtech data, subscriber are looking for Sub $150 - $200 range smartphone and the changed pattern helped Android mobile OS for smartphone to cross 90% market share level. The contributors of higher Android Mobile OS turned out to be Sony and LG. Sony and LG captured 19% and 17% of the total market share driven by Sony Xperia and LG Optimus series models. The biggest loser of market shares are all high end brand and the reason are well explained in the start of post. It is great to see that other smartphone makers on Android markers are tuned themselves to mark their strong presence. It’s an achievement for Android OS, Product, Platform and Application providers. The number clearly indicate that its not impossible to be 90% market share player in very competitive domain

Window Mobile OS crossed 10% market share in Italy during April ending 2013

At last good news started flowing in for Windows Mobile Operating System ( WM 8.0) .According to ComTech report on Mobile OS market share, WM 8.0 managed to cross 10% mark and settled at 10.5% ending April 2013. WM8.0 achieved 57% YoY growth. Android also extended its share from 47.9% to 66.7% YoY. Symbian market share came down from 15.8% to 3.5% whereas iOS market share came down from 22.2% to 16.6%. The April ending numbers clearly indicate the growing interest demonstrated by consumer towards WM 8.0. Since, more than 65% WM8.0 are Nokia branded and also indicate that on supported mobile operating system support level their market share went down. As per Nokia strategy to phase out Symbian and adopt WM8.0 or upgrades with long term vision to touch 10% of mobile operating system market share may act as small but first success towards achieving their global goal. The good 37% YoY growth of Android in Italy mobile operating system segment and slow but steady adoption of WM8.0 may act as trend setter for local application developers

RBI Forex Market Intervention Failed to Stabilize Indian Currency

In the last few days, RBI tried to stabilize Indian Currency through Forex Market intervention post 1.7% slide in one day. Intervention reflected in strong upswing in INR for a day. The slide started today also and it seems like RBI intervention happened again but it failed to control INR fall however it managed successfully to control free fall. One of the contributors for weak currency is the high import oil prices and OMC (Oil Marketing Companies) recoveries. One rupee fall against US $ increase OMC under recoveries by 9000Cr. Today, RBI Dy-Governor came live on CNBC TV18 to assure Industry that Currency situation is similar to 2011 and 2012 but unfortunately failed to highlight growth rate of previous years and on-going growth rate. The honourable FM statement and assurance regarding potential step to control Indian Currency fall against major currencies failed to lift sentiment. With widening balance of payment, fiscal deficit, it seems that RBI cannot be too flexible.

Average pesky call and SMS complaint by registered user per month is too low to deter illegal players

Telecom State Minister came out with average monthly complaint rate against illegal telemarketers and SMS spammers. The number quoted by honourable minister was “27760”. For normal citizen of India, any attempt by subscribers to complain against pesky calls or SMS during assessment, the current scenario is completely different. If 161 Mn plus registered NDNC users are only sending above mentioned number then we must accept the fact that any news report on different print media is completely exaggerated, Isn’t it? It depicts that only fraction of percentage of NDNC users are filing complaint. I believe government regulators must have done analysis better than us and must be worried that how pesky calls and SMS spamming is going out of hand. The sooner we wake up, the better it would be for country. Post survey, the conclusion is very Simple ‘NDNC does not work and its hopeless service. Being a user, I am going to pick up call from Unrecognized calling number” The approach is escapist one not head on approach. We need to take on the issues head on instead of taking back seat.

Any BWA spectrum refund to Indian PSU’s would justify same demand from Private players

In continuation to earlier post regarding “India Mulling FDI Limit Removal in Telecom Sector – Should Government focus Policy Clarity &Implementation OR FDI?”; Indian Telecom sector started experiencing another concern. Major Telecom players started to take negative stance on Indian Telecom Story and initiated process. Latest in the round is Augere Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Augere Holding BV based out of Netherland.

Augere Ltd won in BWA auction in 2010 to offer wireless internet service in two states – Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2010 post paying 125 Cr (INR) decided to exit Indian Telecom sector and Ericsson scarped 4G equipment deal. Last 2 years, the unwarranted happenings around license allocation, license cancellations, notice after notice by regulators to licensees for one or another aspect, new amendment in security, roaming, MVAS, MNP, Spectrum auction and many other dented investor confidence. The GoM is mulling possibilities to refund Indian Telecom PSU BSNL BWA Spectrum fee. It clearly indicates that during auction the base pricing was high with low opportunities. The recent inclusion of voice support over 4G network turned the strategy table of won bidder upside down given Reliance Jio countrywide presence. In my point of view, in case GoM agrees to refund to BSNL then Private Player with one or two circle presence is going to surrender their spectrum too. The reason from all stake holders would be one line “Regulatory Uncertainty and Constant change in Clauses”. Analyst might see it more from the consolidation perspective but I feel that one should also see it from Investor confidence perspective. What message government is sending across? Government should also consider early warning message from private 3G service player regarding their threat to government regarding spectrum surrender.

Bharti Airtel Promoter’s Increased Shareholding- Smart Move

In between 10th to 13th June 2013, Bharti Airtel Promoters increased their holding from 45.77% to 45.8%. In a filing with BSE/NSE, Promoter’s bought around 1.82 Million equity share worth close to 51Cr.Recently, during EGM, Bharti Airtel approved allocation of 1.99Bn preferential equity share to Qatar Foundation Endowment SPC with share allocation price point of 340 INR and aggregated 6795Cr. In my point of view, the current move by promoters demonstrated their confidence in their business model and strategy moving forward. The current on-going equity share price is around 284 which are 16.4% lower than equity share allocation to Qatar Foundation Endowment SPC or its affiliates. It’s a good move to effectively manage shareholding and making full use of negative news which affected Bharti Airtel share price more than the actual performance. I am sure, smart investors are capable enough to catch the un-catched or missed opportunities.

India Gold Import Policy May Initiate another slide in Global Gold Prices

As per World Gold Council, Total Gold demand for Q1 2013 stands at 963 Tonnes. Global Jewellery demand stands at 551 tonnes. India and China accounted for 62% of Q1 2013 global jewellery demand. In case an Indian government gets successful in curbing Gold import then it would have an adverse impact on overall global supply and demand scenario. The current Gold level pricing in India is sustainable at 26k to 27.5K per Oz due to Indian INR conversion against Dollar. The fall in orders from India is going to create low demand vs. high supply environment and in-turn may initiate another Gold price slide on global level.

The Indian Government move is going to be very productive for black marketer of Gold in India and it would definitely create secondary grey gold market. One should not blame Gold import cost the main reason for Current Account Deficit but should also think of inflicting positive investment environment so that Investor should be willing to Invest in India.

New Gold Policy to Curb Import May Backfire – Knee Jerk Impact

One of the main concerns of Indian Government and RBI is to curb unwarranted Gold import to reduce Current Account Deficit. In recent months, gold import tax reached to 8% to manage CAD and in turn to protect India from further downgrade from leading rating agencies. In the beginning, the government initiative looked very promising but got diluted with drastic fall in Indian Currency Viz-a-Viz major global currencies. Two days back, Government and RBI came out with blow out regulation targeted towards Gold Imports for domestic consumption. The domestic companies can import Gold and Platinum only in cash which will increase cash requirements and interest cost. The Gold import companies now cannot use the credit facility. The immediate major impact got reflected on Titan equity price that experienced 35% plus crash. Being one of the most trusted brand and constant value creator for the investor, many professionals most preferred stock is Titan. Most of the leading analyst firm downgraded gold centric equity Target Price and EPS – Earning per share in current and next few financial year.

Government is hopeful for growth even in bad economic data- Where action to arrest further fall in economy

Indian Government official comes out and claim that everything will be ok as government is planning X,Y,Z. On a contrary, IIP, PMI, CPI, WPI, Inflation are giving clear signals that economic environment is going from bad to worst. In my point of view, I don’t give too much weightage to slight fall in WPI and CPI for one week. Even though, EU countries are experiencing severe economic recession than also they are managing their inflation magnificently. Did government managed to implement any policies in Telecom, Power, Capital Good, Heavy Industries, Mining, Infrastructure, Retail, Oil & Gas. I failed to see that and would appreciate if any reader got one then please share through comments. Government should consider swift policy enforcement to kick-start economy.

Retail Investor must stay away from Future & Option instrument in Indian Equity Market

The post is meant for those professionals and retail investors who invest in Indian equity market. For the past 7 trading sessions, Indian equity is feeling the burn of FII outflow from debt market and currency downfall every day. It is investor’s approach to make quick and good money by trading in Future and Option market of course with Stop loss. Sometimes, they also play on margin money side and get trapped. Current equity market environment is no better than tsunami in both the Up and down market. The volatility in market is high and generally it is loved by F&O. I would like to warn retail and especially Professional to be on the side line from F&O till financial market settle down. There is very high probability of higher volatility in coming weeks and market may tilt in any direction given Indian internal economic, political and policy development. It’s time to cherry pick good companies share on delivery base and sit tight with existing share.

India Mulling FDI Limit Removal in Telecom Sector – Should Government focus Policy Clarity &Implementation OR FDI ?

In view of shoring off confidence in Indian Telecom sector, GoM are mulling removing FDI cap to bring in value investment from outside. Barring Bharti Airtel Stake sell, the Indian Telecom Sector little FDI investment in the last 2 year. The 2G scam, 3G auction saga, one time license fee, 3G roaming, security clearance, spectrum re-farming are some of the on-going contention which got lots of media glare and created negative sentiment about India Telecom Story. The cancellation of 2G license and loss of $ Bn’s , International Telecom giants burnt their investment. If we really want to attract FDI in Telecom; the policy clarity and implementation of above mentioned few contentions would send positive signals to potential investors

Mid Tiered Indian IT Companies May Experience Consolidation – India Changed IT Environment

Last one decade, Indian IT companies showed phenomenal growth and returns for their esteemed investor. The Top 25 IT companies captured most of the generated revenue. In the process of opportunistic pick by Big Daddy of Indian IT Industries, many IT players decided to create their niche segment and worked on offer innovative service solutioning offering instead of large player strategy of service solutioning offering.

Most part of the last decade was dominated by TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Satyam but last three years turned everything for toss. Strong IT player Cognizant, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies entered into big league through flurry of acquisition. Satyam financial scam dented Indian IT Image.

During all this certain companies flashed on main arena such as MindTree, Oracle Financial, iGate, Patni Computer which got acquired , Hexaware, Geometric. Rolta, MPhasis, Polaris Financial Technology, Nucleus, RS Systems, Impetus Technologies and many more.

Post 2008 financial meltdown, in my point of view; only few Indian IT companies managed to get back the same growth rate which they achieved before the start of financial crisis..

Infosys slipped to third position on revenue term whereas cognizant captured 2^nd largest IT firm in revenue term. It is important to note that Wipro struggling whereas TechM is on acquisition mode. The struggle at Infosys with their Strategy 3.0, Wipro Restructuring, Cognizant ambitions, HCL Technologies continuous contract renewal bid over competitors changed Indian IT industry dynamics. The recent economic downturn in India, Natural calamity in US and severe downturn in Europe impacted Indian Mid-Tier IT companies as mentioned above. Most of the Mid-Tier listed IT companies’ market valuation ranges from $150 to $600 Mn with attractive EBITA, Cash position, Strong Cliental and Long term managed services contract. The recent on-going talks around Polaris Financial Technologies only confirm the same. Net Positive Cash pile of more than $85 (Constant Currency – 1$-55INR), $ 400 Mn Revenue, EBITA around $85 Mn w.r.t just concluded yearly revenue. Recent, blind selling in equity post Currency concern also push Polaris share price from 140 INR to 110 INR level in 5 trading days. For value investors looking to ride on acquisition premium may consider dipping into the same. I am sure, M&A in Indian IT sector is yet to start but its round the corner.

Pesky calls and SMS issue in India can be resolved through Social responsibility act only – Act before it hit your information

Recently, TRAI got very active to completely eradicate pesky calls and SMS to offer and protect privacy of Indian subscribers. TRAI came out with 11^th amendment around unsolicited commercial communications to send across warning bells within service ecosystem. According to Newspaper Hindu Business line article Tata- Tele, Reliance Communications and Aircel were served warning from regulators to make all necessary arrangement to monitor pesky calls and SMS generation through their network by rouge telemarketers and SMS service providers. Two years back Bharti Airtel stopped their bulk SMS service to offer privacy and QoS of their subscribers but unfortunately the big three of Indian Telecom sector Bharti Airtel, Idea and Vodafone India suffering the most because of their subscriber target base.

In another report in Economic Times, the new mechanism of bulk flooding of SMS using GSM Modem attached 100’s of SMS SIM’s and every SIM are calibrated to send only TRAI limit of daily SMS.

Important to Note that, the above mentioned process of acquiring 100’s of SIM for commercial purpose highlight major security flaws in the verification process of subscribers. It raises following questions and believe that being citizen, subscribers, Enterprise and service provider, we all should take 2 min to think about it

1. How rouge players are managing to acquire so many SIM’s?
2. Is there any flaws in SIM and Subscriber authentication process or
3. Who is giving rouge player’s business for Telemarketing?
4. Are regulators focusing in penalizing advertisers to use rouge players?
5. Is it effective to disconnect mobility connection and bar particular subscriber for 2 years?

In my point of view, the advertisers and pesky calls and SMS providers must be penalized heavily to start with.

Request reader to own up social responsibility and share article to increase awareness among our innocent subscriber base. If we all want to see India growing through differentiated approach, then we all must be united the way we follow when there is any threat on our boarders. Thanks in advance for your

Apple iTunes Radio – Another Potential Revenue Spinning Machine

It was really nice to see Apple creating blazer ecosystem around its services to target its existing customer base. Post successful acceptance and being in Number one in music store with many million voice content attached with iTunes, Apple is trying to create dynamic and preference content streaming to music loving consumer base.  Apple iTunes Radio is non other than enablement of consumer need in aggregated and preference level manner. With the launch of iOS7 and potential upcoming refreshment of Smartphone is going to increase Apple share in mobility segment. The move is to tag their Millions of iPod customer base and also created golden opportunity to convert them into Apple Smartphone new buyer.

Recent slide of Apple market share to its competitors in select countries and rise of Android OS may come to a situation where the dice is thrown on the other side to reduce Apple innovation based counter attack to justify “Why they are best in UI &UX, Technology innovation”. Upcoming Apple Developer summit booking got over subscribed in 70 second. Isn’t it enough to showcase “One Powerful Message?” Guess what it is……

China Smartphone market contributed 23.55% of Global Shipment in FY12-13 – Potential Trend Setter

In Just concluded FY12-13, According to research firm Strategy Analytics, China contributed 23.55% of Global Smartphone shipment. Interestingly, Top 7 smartphone players with such as Samsung, Lenovo, Apple, Huawei, Coolpad, and ZTE are cementing their position whereas LG and Nokia suffered major blow. Being global player and replaced by local Technology Giant clearly indicate dynamic shift of consumer preferences around UI/UX and supported content ecosystem. Samsung for the last two consecutive quarter selling more than 10 Mn smartphone in China and commanding good price premium over competitors. As IDC projecting 20% YoY growth in smartphone shipment, I feel that China would lead volume game. It also indicates that China demand would enforce technology player strategy towards device design and development.

Falling Indian Currency – Pain for Consumers Looking to buy Electronic Gadget

In recent week, FII's started pulling out their investment post multiple Billion $ deployment on different instrumentation. The nervous traders are betting against upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) and WPI (Wholesale Price Index) and acts as important KPI’s to determine Reserve Bank Interest Rate Policy. In May 2013, I predicted that there would be free fall of INR and now we are experiencing the same. Even major analysts were taking positive stance on Indian Currency given Crude price and Gold price fall.

With the growing adoption of International Electronic Brand, Consumers and Prosumer’s are going to experience price point rise in Electronic gadgets. The only beneficial would be those global gadget providers having their manufacturing hub in India with minimum or no equipment procurement from their global locations.

Laptops, Mobile Devices, Camera, Laptops/Tablets, ICT equipment may see 3 to 4 % rise in their price. In my point of view; If consumer or prosumer’s are planning to buy gadget then do proper access of currency movement before taking any call.

Key Success Factors for Professionals – Any Sector, Any Geography

Most of the professionals face tough time during their professional life. It is a common scenario to toss on-going issues amongst each other. Most of the times, blame game goes towards either immediate juniors/subordinates/seniors.

I have been reading many blogs and articles talking about professional’s problems like:

• They are not getting right platform to showcase their potential
• They are subjected to internal politics
• Seniors/Management don’t give them proper hearing
• Heavy work load seizes opportunities to enhance their skills
• Internal restructuring and new job responsibilities
• And many more

Let me share my experience, during my tenure with world leading research firm; I was assigned to implement H-MobileIPv6 as one of my projects. While implementing, I also went through the phase where I too was being subjected to internal politics, over burden with work, non-supportive team and so on. One fine day, I decided to implement the followings:

• Introspect every evening about day’s gain and loss at work place
• Work on weakness and don’t be proud of identified strength
• Learn to say “ I don’t know” rather than running around the bushes with funny answers
• Learn to approach even your juniors to gain knowledge, Once you will learn then you can master it
• If one you have identified your weakness approach your seniors for help and guidance
• Learn to say “ THANK YOU”
• In a competitive Professional environment, one needs to excel and should “Prepare oneself when whole world is sleeping”. Every additional hour of effort would bring new skills
• Follow Einstein philosophy “Imagination is more important than Knowledge”. When you close your eyes you must be able to see the whole product/network/Traffic/ KPI’s.
• In order to achieve above point, learn the basics of each component. It is not necessary to be master of all components but should be aware of the basics
• Learn to “Surprise your team with information”. It would bring motivation among team members and would ultimately be beneficial for the organization
• Be proactive and never see your watch during work execution

The above approach helped me in ups and downs of my professional life.

I would be coming out with another post to highlight your positive or negative impact on Organization

I request post readers to share, if you believe in above mentioned points.

India command only 2.10% of the worldwide Smartphone market in FY12-13 – Opportunity for Smartphone players

Global shipment of smartphone in FY12-13 achieved 722.3 Million units based on IDC research. At the same time, India smartphone market size stands at 15.2 Mn according to Cyber Media Research. India is home of 12.66% of global mobility subscriber whereas contribute only 2.1% of global smartphone market size. With on-going reduction or offers from global player to sustain their market share against home grown smartphone player; it offers great opportunity for Indian mobility subscriber. As 93% plus Indian mobility device market is non-smartphone centric and availability of Sub $ 200 offer great opportunity for existing or new players in India. As per IDC and Cyber Media Research that Indian Smartphone may experience high double digit growth for next few years.

Reliance communication and Reliance Jio Tower collaboration sharing – Major Boost for Reliance Communications

Post Reliance communications and Reliance Jio collaboration for Reliance communications fiber optic cable network usages to enable Reliance Jio flexibility to move into service offering mode quickly. The 1200 cr payment from Reliance Jio got lots of cheer among reliance communications investor given their stalled revenue growth and increasing debt level. Once, foe turned into collaborated started industry speculation that more deals are in the offing’s. Yesterday announcement by both the company on 45000 tower sharing agreement for 15 years tenure at mutually agreed 12000cr is nothing but super banner wins for Reliance communications investors as well as potential investors for taking stake in Reliance communications. The Reliance Jio contract would positively impact Reliance communications revenue by 5% every quarter. It would help Reliance communications to improve its falling EBITA level to stable 30% level in order to generate enough cash to serve financial cost associated with 35000 cr plus debt level. At the same, in recent quarter Reliance communication initiated proactive approach by outsourcing network management, customer management, new product launch management to leading Network servicing companies to reduce fixed cost and tagged contract value on the basis of QoS, Network occupancy, Average revenue per minute, Average revenue per product/services/applications. After failed attempt to launch their Flag IPO due to valuations in Singapore and recent interest by telecom and PE giant; the concluded deal with Reliance Jio would give higher flexes to Reliance communication to ask for higher valuation for the minority or majority stake in the intended business which they feel can be divested to reduce their debt burden to reasonable level. Any probable divestment of target business segment may act as super opportunity for long term investor to reap in huge financial gains. The speculation of potential deal with Reliance Jio pushed Reliance communications share to achieve around 97% gain in last 3 months whereas peers share prices are struggling. Just imagine company share prices if Reliance communications manages to close proposed deal in respective business unit.

Disclaimer: The above assessment is completely author assessment. Any potential investors are advised to take suggestions from recognized financial analyst.

Biggest and Growing Hurdle of Indian Telecom Sector Growth

In recent years, Indian telecom sector started experiencing cascaded impact on multiple fronts. Once, FDI investment darling experienced lowest FDI investment inflows in the last 2 years period. The constant amendment of regulation and non- correlated action initiated by both Telecom, Finance and Defence ministry helped growing doubt about government intention to offer single window clearance to International and domestic investor to invest across sectors. For post readers, the first opinion about me that I am critic of government but that’s not the fact. The issues related to ILD, roaming, MNP, MVAS, taxation of Vodafone, Idea,2G scam, 3G roaming agreement, voice service enablement for BWA license holders post auctioning license are few examples of lack of vision and wrong assessment of ground reality. Simple query pops up about recent additional tax demand from Vodafone, Bharti, Rcom and other Telco after 3 financial years. I don’t think that our finance ministry so incapable of not identifying the discrepancies on the fly. Recent penalty on Bharti for services which got discontinued 5 years back demonstrate that service provider must be open to get notice on any aspect any time from associated ministries. The operators collaborated on 3G roaming and I strongly believe that all the service providers are not stupid and incapable of identifying the positive and negative implications. The DoT notice and subsequently court orders for Bharti to pay 350 Cr as penalty only justifies that the communications in the form of consultation or any other form are grossly under rated. The immediate reaction of Telco industry was even more negative for investor as well government by demanding re-auction of 3G license based on the current and future policies projection or refund paid amount back to service provider. In a scenario when government is offloading their stake of Navratana PSU’s to control Fiscal deficit in order to delay another credit downgrade from rating firm. It is unfortunate to read news article that any scam investigation take the everything decade back and that got validated by Summoning the architect of Indian Telecom sector Mr. Sunil Bharti Mittal and Mr. Ruia. Being citizen of great India, my query to government is simple – Why investigating agencies woke up after 10 years. On the contrary, the parliamentary investigation panel, JPC chairman is willing to take the final decision without calling the prime suspect of 2G scam. Do we believe that India growing campaign will carry relevance when the reality is different? Recently, respected Finance Minister travelled to different geographies to attract FDI and also claimed seamless regulatory / Policy implementation. Today we are at 4.8% GDP growth and government is projecting 6.5% in coming few quarters. I am rest assured based on my analysis that it would even go down in current scenario. In my point of view, government inter departmental minister must discuss in GoM about their weakness rather than putting the onus on Industry.

Mr. Sunil Bharti Mittal, Mr, Ruia and many other industrialists are brand of India and International investor invests on the basis of their commitment not on the basis of Manrega or Food security. Still it’s not late; all of us must try on individual or collective level to increase India Brand which got dented badly due to policy paralysis in the recent past.

Nokia Siemens Networks ( NSN) winding up Kolkata, based factory on July 31 – Setback For India

In continuation to NSN broader strategy to realign business unit to focus on upcoming high demand business and reduce cost,; NSN served notice to employees and concerned government authorities in India for the closer of Kolkata based fixed line equipment manufacturing unit.

Last year NSN offered VRS as well as internal transfers to eligible employees fulfilling Job Profiles. Unfortunately few employees realised the gravity of situation and opted for VRS at higher separation package. In notice, NSN clarified that they are focusing on Mobile broadband compared to diminishing fixed line business.

Given the recent regulation, Telecom gear makers must manufacture telecom and networking gear in India to gain access to government and non-government contract bidding eligibility. On a contrary to that NSN move may be seen as negative 

HTC Targeting 15% market share in Indian Smartphone segment by FY13 end– Isn’t it too difficult to achieve

According to GFK,– research agency assessment, HTC currently sitting on 6% of Indian smartphone market. Based on Cyber Media Research, FY12 smartphone volume size was 15.2 Million achieving YoY growth rate of 35.7%. In FY12, on volume side, HTC shipped 912000 smartphone. As local and global giants like Samsung, Apple, Nokia, Sony, Karbonn, Micromax are offering attractive payment options along with cutting edge features to attract to be converted smartphone users in India. Recent advertisement global and domestic players indicates that mid-level feature phone user adoption can be converted into smartphone user and expecting more than 40% growth YoY in Smartphone volume. Even if I consider the lower end with 30% growth YoY; it would translate total market size of around 20 Million. Targeting 15% pie from the same would require HTC to achieve 225% YoY. That too in a scenario; where domestic players like karbonn, Micromax, Lava are refreshing their device portfolio every quarter. The domestic players promoted canvas, Titanium are getting good reviews and are unable to fulfill volume demand. We also should not forget Lumia 500 series product line for the new smartphone users. Since, both Nokia and HTC offer WM based smartphone and it would be tough task HTC sales executives to convince Indian user that HTC is better than Nokia. Indian smartphone users consider brand name act as major component of Indian subcontinent decision making process. In my point of view, I would be salute HTC sales team even if they achieve 10% market share by the end of current fiscal year.

Nokia helping Microsoft Mobile OS to gain market share in Verizon Wireless- Early warning for competitor and good news for Smartphone user

After unsuccessful attempt by Microsoft to push its Mobile OS adoption during 2010; the Nokia Collaboration helped Microsoft to start making its presence felt in US market. The latest confirmation is Nokia Lumia product acceptance and now commands 6.8 percent of Verizon sell through smartphone size of 7.2 Mn during last quarter. Nokia helped Microsoft to grow its Mobile OS device share on Verizon wireless from 0.2% ending April 2012 to 6.8% ending April 2013. Nokia slew of new product launch in US market to make more impactful presence and may attempt to lure away iPhone loyalist. During April 2013 ending Quarter, iPhone sold 4 million through Verizon wireless. The shipment figure is encouraging and also highlight that the current industry perception about Windows Phone that the Nokia-Microsoft duo struggled to outshine Apple’s iPhone and phones running Google’s Android operating system must be reconsidered. According to IDC report it is important to note that Window OS based Phones outclass Apple in select parts of the geographies. The Windows based Mobility device shipments exceeded against iPhone in countries such as were Argentina, India, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and Croatia during the fourth quarter. Its Technology sector mantra is simple and that is “Users are not loyalist but love constant change”. The emergence of new technology giant and bust of some validates the same. Analyst may consider highlighting Nokia strength and their unmatched contribution rather than focusing on “how Microsoft is funding Nokia and what would happen to Nokia post expiry of the same”. Would appreciate readers counter comments if they feel the other way around

Nokia – Long term bet for investor

Most of the analyst feels that Nokia is under pressure to deliver both on product and profitability end. I observed that many analyst writing down Nokia prospect and predicting that it would be an acquisition target. I feel the other way and with confidence can claim that their strategy to be one of the best product portfolios would be achieved in next 2 quarter. Most of the print media focussing on their effort to halt market share loss vs. competitors in the last 2 years. Here are some of the crude facts for the critic of Nokia strategy. The major geographies which may impact the total device market are US, India & BRIC countries.

India Status

In recently published report cyber media about Indian mobile device market dynamic and Nokia leadership in India clearly demonstrate that even during transition phase, Nokia managed to hold on their Number 1 position. It is interesting to observe that Indian market offer full opportunity for the feature phone where Nokia Asha is giving competitors sleepless night. On the Smartphone segment, Lumia 500 series with sub $200 range and offering smartphone differentiated feature set attracting lost Nokia loyalist into their fold again. The recent upgrade of Lumia series across price point and their potential availability in said geography is going to offer more muscle power to govern dynamics.

China Status

After losing market share to local player, Nokia rejigged their china based management team. In the last few months, Nokia successfully collaborated with China Mobile and Chinese retailers to offer value for money. The china mobile deal and customized Lumia 920T mass delivery is only going to help Nokia regain their lost ground in china. The additional bulk buying of Nokia devices by online Chinese retailers are offering Nokia an opportunity to predict the expected delivery and according ramp up their cost effective and efficient manufacturing processes. The China story is not reflected in their released result last quarter. At the same time, China is one of the biggest market for feature phone and Nokia offering from $20 to $300 range device for one of most active replacement cycle market is going to play in Nokia favour only.

US status

The biggest achievement of Nokia with their changed strategy is US market penetration and successful adoption of product line. Most of the service providers and retailers are offering Lumia product line. The recent launch of customized Lumia high end smartphone with Verizon would definitely bring cheer to all Nokia Investor. Last quarter, Nokia volume was impacted due to component issues and Nokia is known for seamlessly fixing up those issues. The recent glitch of iPhone integrated maps helped Nokia to establish their brand effectively in US. One should not be surprised, if Nokia captures more than 10% of US smartphone market in Next two quarter.

I also would like to point out that it took Motorola good three years to be formidable device player post sudden debacle in 2001 whereas Samsung became king of Smartphone after 7 years of heavy investment in the segment.

What I observed that Nokia restructuring and their head office sell out got more negative publicity compared to their innovative product line.

I also would like to request post reader to name one of the mobile device manufacture who are directly associated with an organization offering most of your work based software. Nokia was criticized for going other way and collaborated with Microsoft instead of adopting Android. Everyone focussed on financial part of it but rarely found any article where the benefits were mentioned for potential customers.

In my point of view, smart investor should focus on their patent portfolio, patent win over Blackberry and other companies, licensing agreement with QUALCOMM, Nokia Siemens Stake, Value associated with Navteq, Ovi Store and many other. I don’t believe that the current market price and Market Cap of $ 3.48 and $ 12.92 is anywhere near to reality. It pops up simple query from potential downfall of share price; the answer is simple- big player moved out from share due to dividend and restructuring cost.

My recommendation to potential long term investor would be to analyse it your own and invest for multi fold gain in next one year.

Disclaimer: Request potential investor to consult their financial advisor before investing. The above assessment is purely my view regarding Nokia potential