In FY10-11, with
the launch of services from new mobile service provider entrant and subsequent
tariff price reduction, there was huge addition of new mobile subscriber base. In
late 2010 and 2011 the monthly subscriber addition was at an average of 4.5
Million subscribers. The growth of Subscriber addition got muted post Supreme Court
order in Feb 2012 to abolish the license of many mobile operators. At that
point of time the analyst kept on forecasting growth in Subscriber addition. Many
mobile operators, who lost their licenses, took the abrupt decision to stop
offering their services in circle where their subscriber base was low, and cost
of per subscriber addition was high. From July 2012, the subscriber growth rate
turned negative. Given the trend and hidden macros of Mobile Operator ecosystem
the subscriber base would touch 840 million by March 2013 from current level of 901 million. For optimistic analyst it's
very hard to accept the forecast for Wireless Subscriber March 2013 but forecast which was done in early
and late 2011 about FY12-13 is self explanatory
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